Since the Shang and Zhou dynasties, we have always been the largest country in the world.Not only that, my country also broke through the 1 billion population mark in July 1982, creating the world’s best population.However, there have been recent news on the Internet that we have bid farewell to the world’s number one in 2022 -India exceeds 1.4126 billion in China with a total population of 1.4157.1 billion, and the total population of India is 3.11 million more than my country.
Professionals point out that my country’s population is "bidding first in the world" is inevitable, because the birth rate of India still remains about 2.24%, and the annual population is more than 20 million.Of course, many experts expressed doubts about whether it surpassed China in 2022, because the data on the Internet is not from Indian officials, but the data published by a medical information website is extremely lacking of credibility.
In the opinion of experts, these are irrelevant, because in the current period, the more important problem in front of us is: the two -child has given no success, and the population alarm has sounded. Since the implementation of the "comprehensive two -child" policy in 2016, my country The birth rate of birth not only failed to reverse, but became more severe.According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, in the first year of the "two -child" policy in 2016, the national population reached 17.86 million, but in the following five years, the national birth population was "5 consecutive declines".Among them, only 10.62 million were born in 2021, with a population birth rate of 7.52 ‰.It is worth mentioning that the birth population in 2021 set a new low in recent years, a decrease of 43.6%from 2016.
In addition, the total fertility rate of my country in 2021 was only 1.15, which was already lower than the total fertility rate of Japan with severe childization.According to the theory of population, the total fertility rate needs to reach 2.1 to reach the level of generations.According to international practice, the total fertility rate is lower than 1.5 means entering the recognized "low fertility trap".
If it is only a slight population -based population, my country is still in the "burden" of accelerating the aging of the population.Qi Pu’s data shows that the population of 60 and over my country is 26.402 million, accounting for 18.70%, of which 190.64 million are 65 years old, accounting for 13.50%.According to international standards, my country has obviously entered a "deep aging" society.In the near future, it will enter the "super -aging society" stage.
Professionals pointed out that the aging of the population and the population structure of the Chinese population exists at the same time. This is not available in developed countries, and it also belongs to China’s special national conditions.
Based on this, Fang Lianquan, Ma Guangyuan, Ren Zeping, Liang Jianzhang and other experts of the Secretary-General of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences World Social Security Research Center have bluntly predicted that China will enter the "negative population growth" stage in the next 2-3 years.In addition, the world -renowned medical magazine "Liuye Knife" also predicts that if the current fertility rate, by 2100, the Chinese population will drop to 700 million.
The birth rate has fallen for 5 consecutive years, especially in 2020 and 2021. If it is calculated in 2016, in the past two years alone, my country’s birth population has decreased by 13.1 million.Some people may wonder that in the early days of the founding of New China, my country’s economy was not developed, and the living standards of citizens were very backward. Medical and education conditions were very poor, but at that time, everyone was willing to have a lot of baby.In contrast, everyone’s living standards have been greatly improved, and supporting facilities are relatively complete, but why are young people now unwilling to have children?
According to institutional investigation and research, the low willingness to fertility in young people is mainly four aspects: First, the economic burden is too heavy, including economic pressures such as fertility, breeding, medical care, education, housing, and consumption expenditure.Two of the largest are housing and educational expenses.In terms of housing, even if it is not purchasing high-quality school district housing, it is only calculated based on ordinary commercial housing in a second-tier city. The cost of buying a house is as high as 700,000-800,000, which does not include a mortgage of 6,000 yuan per month.
How high is China’s raising cost?Soon, Liang Jianzhang gave the answer in the "China Fertility Cost Report 2022 Edition": the world’s best.The report shows that the average raising cost of children 0-17 in the country is 485,000 yuan; the average raising cost of graduating from college from 0 years old is 627,000 yuan.Among them, the cost of raising for one child 0-17 at the age of one child is 631,000 yuan, two children are 497,000 yuan, and three children are 377,000 yuan.
Second, infants and young children are unattended.A number of surveys have shown that unmanned care of infants and young children is one of the important reasons to restrict fertility.On the one hand, "Qi Pu" data shows that the size of our household households is 2.62, and we have decreased by 3.1 people from "Liu Pu".In fact, in the past ten years, the proportion of "unmarried" and "Dink" in my country has increased significantly compared with the past.The fundamental reason is that the young people’s families do not have the conditions to caress about the young; on the other hand, there is a huge gap in supply and demand for childcare services.At present, there are about 42 million infants 0-3 years old, of which more than 33%have a strong demand for childcare services, but the actual supply is less than 5.5%.
The third is that women are difficult to balance the relationship between family and work.Many women face a question after marriage: how to balance the relationship between work and family.To put it plainly, if you want your career or family.Some people say that the double harvest of the career and family is the biggest pursuit of life.But few people can do it in reality.At least for most ordinary families, it is impossible to achieve.
There are real cases around the author. A young couple married at the age of 30 and faced a major choice of fertility and career. Women in the workplace can also be considered small achievements and contribute to the family’s economic contribution.It means that it is difficult to balance whether the work can be kept away from work for a long time.If you are not fertilized, you may not be able to have children, but if you choose to give birth, your career may not be kept.Bringing a baby, this cycle is at least two years, and it is extremely unrealistic to return to the workplace two years later.
To sum up, under the division of labor of traditional families, women must not only work, but also have more obligations of housework and fertility.And due to this division of labor, women are easy to encounter sexual gender discrimination in the workplace in the workplace, and marriage and childbirth may affect development and even lose their rice bowls.
Fourth, the social responsibility of fertility is a major factors that are not strong for young people.
In the previous report, Ren Zeping pointed out that high -direct costs such as housing, education, and medical care are the "three big mountains" that suppress fertility.%, The main force of fertility is now full of high housing prices and high mortgages. It is difficult to protect basic life. There are still economic strength to get married and give birth to baby.
In addition, data show that the higher the price of the economy, the higher the housing price, and the lower the marriage rate and fertility rate.For example, the national marriage rate in 2018 was the lowest, only 4.4 ‰, and the countdown in Zhejiang was the second to 5.9 ‰. The marriage rate in Guangdong, Beijing, Tianjin and other places was also low.Earlier, the "High house prices affect fertility willingness to fertility?——The thesis research results based on the analysis of the experience of fertility and childbirth of house prices and childbearing age are also true: high house prices to suppress fertility -rising house prices have a significant negative impact on fertility willingness, and the average price of commercial housing increases by 1%, and the willingness to give birth to children’s willingness will be increased.The number decreased by about 0.2.
In summary, housing is the "most critical factor" of fertility.Therefore, if you want to achieve the purpose of giving birth and solve the "housing" problem of young people, you must become the focus of policy development.In other words, only the problem of the house has been solved. Young people have the power to have a second child, or even a third child.
After the second child gave birth to no success, the country finally "shot" housing, especially since the "three -child fertility policy" was released, from the country, to the local area, all of them are using the big move of housing.This is mainly reflected in three aspects: First, in the past six months, many provinces have "shot" housing, such as Jiangsu, Gansu, and Zhejiang. They are all acting.Among them, the "fertility" policy issued by Hai’an City, Jiangsu Nantong is the most prominent: two -child and three -child families who are under 18 years of age (as of February 28, 2022) in Hai’an residents have a two -child family on the basis of market priceGive 200 yuan per square meter and 400 yuan for three -child families.
In addition, Linze, Gansu, is the first city in the country to distribute real gold and silver to stimulate more children to give birth to house subsidies. The specific policy is to give 40,000 yuan in resident families with two children and three children in the county urban area.The subsidies will give 30,000 yuan in subsidies when buying commercial housing in each center town.For big cities, the subsidy is not high, but for Linze, which is only about 4,000 yuan, it can save a lot of money -subsidy money, enough to buy a house of about 10 square meters. For ordinary needs,It can save a large number of house purchase costs.
Second, the regulation of the control is true, and its original intention is to inhibit the rise in house prices and achieve the need for hundreds of millions to solve the problem of residence, thereby achieving the ultimate goal of boosting the willingness of fertility.Regulatory dynamics are by no means staying in the slogan. From the data of 70 cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics, it can be seen that since September 2021, the number of new second -hand housing prices in 70 cities has gradually increased.Not only that, in December 2021, the average price of new houses in the country still fell within 10,000 yuan;
Third, in addition to the distribution of house purchase subsidies and regulating housing prices, the state’s "shot" to housing is also reflected in the promotion of affordable housing construction. This is an important part of the work report of 2022.As of now, more than 20 provinces across the country have deployed real estate work in people’s livelihood and social security in 2022, emphasizing that insisting on "housing does not fry", vigorously develop affordable housing, etc., and promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
In addition, the National Housing and Urban -Rural Construction Work Conference in 2022 clearly stated that in 2022, it is necessary to vigorously increase the supply of affordable leased housing, focusing on large cities with a net inflow of population, to build 2.4 million sets of affordable rental housing (room) throughout the year.Experts analyze that these measures have a dual effect: first, to ensure the livelihood of people’s livelihood, and the other is the real "urging fertility".Still that, only if the big problem of living is solved, everyone will be willing to give birth and have the ability to give birth to achieve a multi -life purpose.
Of course, in view of the "two -child giving birth" and combined with the "three -child fertility policy", in recent times, experts have also put forward many new 2022 suggestions.For example, Ren Zeping suggested that in the future, it should be encouraged to encourage fertility. There are three children in first-tier cities, and each person will reward 3,000-5000 yuan per month.At the time, public rental housing with very low rent is provided unconditionally; for example, Liang Jianzhang suggested that there are a certain preferential purchase discount for two children and three children, a 50 % discount of two children, and a 50 % discount of three children. Although it is not practical, it is recommendedThe strength is quite great.
Among the new 2022 suggestions of many experts, we believe that the encouraging fertility suggestions proposed by Wang Hong, director of the Shanghai Social Security Issues Research Center, is more practical, and it can really solve the young people. "Wish to give birth, be good, and not raise well ".It should be noted that the new proposal of expert Wang Hong’s 2022 proposal is quite agreed with parents. The specific content includes four aspects:
The first is to implement differentiated individual tax deductions and economic subsidy policies, covering from pregnancy health to children’s 18 years of age or educational education.
The second is to increase the supply of education services.You can learn the United States, incorporate children’s childcare into the public service system, and promote the development of infant childcare services through legislative guarantee investment and implementation of quality evaluation systems.
The third is to further improve the employment guarantee of women, advocate equality for women’s employment, and implement preferential maternity tax on enterprises.
Fourth, the burden on housing, education and medical treatment is greatly reduced.For example, in housing, there are many children’s families. Applying for public rental housing has preferential priority, and differentiated to enjoy the preferential purchase of house purchase. For example, in education, a medical fund is established to increase subsidies to couples receiving auxiliary conception courses.
Analysis of the new suggestions of Wang Hong 2022, it is not difficult to find that the reason why the proposal can be approved by his parents is mainly the new proposal "right medicine" -Bassed solving young people from pregnancy to giving birth, and then all in the process of breeding.The problem, especially the burden of housing and medical care, will play a vital role.
